Monday, April 7, 2014

Handicapping the Mayor's race

Tomorrow is decision day for Jackson.  Which course will the voters take?  Mayor Chokwe Lumumba's death caught many by surprise.  Will there be more surprises tomorrow? It's the last 24 hour of the campaign.  Social media is aflame with accusations.  Neighborhoods are carpet-bombed with flyers.  Talk radio gets louder.  Deals are cut.  What is a voter to do?   Good thing you came to Jackson Jambalaya as The Kingfish will break down the race for you.

The short nature of this race makes it very interesting.  Candidates are forced to raise money, craft a message, assemble a staff, door-knock, and campaign all on the fly for less than four weeks.  Big difference compared to normal campaigns where such things occur in stages over several months.  Candidates had to grab what ammo and troops they could and run to the battlefield.  It's a good opportunity to see who can perform under pressure.... and who can't.  It's no accident the candidates leading the polls also happen to be those who are best organized. 

The goal is not to win but instead to make the runoff.  Winning the primary means nothing.  Ask Jonathan Lee or Jimmy Houston.  Winning means you get to play another day.  The championship rounds begin Wednesday. Who will be there?  33,000 voted in the 2013 primary and 37,000 in the runoff.  How many will vote tomorrow?

The race is also interesting because of the depth of the field.  Three lawyers, one former principal, a three-term former Mayor, and a State Senator.  Three sit on the city council.  Pretty good talent for such a race.  Billy Powell once told me to look at the candidate's base. Does he have one?  Four candidates are Ward 2: Horhn, Harvey, Priester, Jr., Lumumba, Jr.  Four guys fighting over the same bit of precinct turf.  Thus they have to go elsewhere for their votes.  The Stokes machine is helping Chokwe in Ward 3.  The ward is thus probably part of his base.  Margaret Barrett-Simon has a base in Belhaven and due to her color, Northeast Jackson.  Regina Quinn  does not have much of a base.  She is at a disadvantage because she never won an elected office. She is thus starting from scratch.

Time to review the candidates.

Chokwe Lumumba, Jr.  He has the advantage of running on his father's name and using his father's machine.  There are more than a few city employees who want to keep their jobs and will do whatever it takes to ensure he wins.  He was endorsed last week by District Attorney Robert Schuler Smith.  Other notables such as Dennis Sweet endorsed him.  What is also important is who did not endorse him: Bennie Thompson and Precious Martin.  Bennie Thompson was one of the main reasons Chowke's father won the election last year.  Sort of like when Hannibal found his Numidian cavalry fighting for Rome on the plains of Zama.

Chowke is running on his father's legacy.  He claims he wrote his father's platform.  Mr. Lumumba doesn't have a real resume to promote as he is only 31 years old.  He is a good public speaker but provides very little details on what he will do as Mayor.  He strongly states he will "let the people decide" and use "people power".  Simple slogans and cliches.  It's a way of stating he does not really have a platform.   His father blasted Jonathon Lee last year at the debate for not knowing how a city council operates.  The ultimate irony is that Chokwe's son comes closer to Jonathan Lee in that respect than he does his father.  He doesn't offer any specifics on crime, education, or economic development.  It seems many voters do not care about such things nor have his opponents attacked these weaknesses.  He is also pulling in a great deal of out of state money.  That seems to have escaped notice as well.

Harvey Johnson, Jr.  Name ID is everything in a short race.  Harvey's best strength is everyone knows Harvey.  Harvey's biggest weakness is everyone knows Harvey.  Voters clearly wanted a change last  year.  Voters often said they thought the city was going in the wrong direction as the race took shape in 2013.  Harvey refused to change and often said the city was on the right path.  His stubbornness put him in third place.  The big question is what has Harvey learned from his defeat. The relationship between he and the business community was always strained.  Crime was a problem.  Harvey owns the school board.  They are his appointments but for one member.   Harvey is often unfairly knocked as a racist.  He may not ask for white votes but he had no qualms about hiring white people such as Dan Gaillet or Rick Hill.  The Jackson Advocate crowd often charged he was not black enough for their tastes.  The big question is will Harvey change or is it more of the same.

Harvey is not a quitter.  He's lost three times.... and won three times. He came in third last year and those who beat him are not in the race.  He knocks on doors every day from 5-8 PM.  He worked Plantation Boulevard and the surrounding area for six hours while everyone was campaigning at the St. Paddy's Day parade.  Many forget he did better than expected in Northeast Jackson in the 2009 primary.  Half of Northeast Jackson is black and Harvey polls well in that area.  Harvey has a machine.  They know what to do and they have been in this situation several times.  Don't count him out as he is probably running in third place right now if polls are to be believed.  He has not attacked Chowke and that will probably hurt him on election day.

John Horhn.   The State Senator has one strength that draws envy from most candidates- he can raise money.  Senator Horhn raised the most money in 2009 and $104,000 in this election.  Economic development is his mantra, as he brags about his record in the legislature.  He claims ownership of the one-percent sales tax increase.  Harvey's former campaign manager is at the helm of this venture.  The Senator is likeable and doesn't play the race card.  He met with the Governor to discuss the jail last week and organized a crime summit last year.

However, Senator Horhn does have one huge albatross around his neck: his DUI arrest last year after the crime summit.  What hurts the Senator is not the fact that he was charged with a DUI. More than a few politicians have been convicted of drinking while driving and still won elections.  Senator Horhn faces the problem of what he did during the arrest.  The police report states he threatened the cops with the loss of their jobs, tried to throw his weight around, and generally made an ass of himself even when the police tried to take him home.  It's a hard mountain to climb, but the Senator is willing to scale those heights.  The problem is his efforts will probably fall very short on election day.

Melvin Priester, Jr.  The golden child.  The pedigreed candidate.  Two parents who are well-respected Harvard grads and attorneys.  Now we are talking about the elite in the Black community.  He brags of being a graduate of Jackson Public Schools even though he went to St. Andrews until tenth grade.  Graduated from Harvard.  Stanford Law School.  Mr. Priester is probably one of the most intelligent candidates to run for Mayor in Jackson.  He has many good ideas and has a reputation for responding to constituents.  He sees them more as customers instead of just someone to visit every four years. 

However, he is often seen as arrogant and at times, a mama's boy.  It takes more than a high IQ to run a city.  He is the Bennie machine's chosen one.  Precious Martin spent half of his radio show promoting young Melvin.  The endorsement of Bennie and Precious will help him in the Black community while it drives others crazy.  The knock against him in the Black community is he thinks he is too good for them.  He often looks down at his notes during debates and speaks as if he is reading off a grocery list of items.  He and Chowke share the same problem: thin resumes and little in the way of life experiences.  Running the city of Jackson is not a research project and should not be treated as such.

The problem facing Mr. Priester is timing.  Sources say he planned on running for Mayor in 2017 but for the Mayor dying.  That is the thing about death, it doesn't cooperate.  It doesn't ask what your plans are.  It just does its thing and leaves you to pick up the pieces.  Just as the death of Doug Anderson wrecked the plans of the Graham machine, so did death do the same to those of Melvin Priester, Jr.  Whoever wins this election will win re-election if he or she does a half-decent job of running Jackson.  If the winner actually does a real good job, forget any serious opposition in 3 years.  Priester knows this and thus had to run now and hope for the best.  He didn't have much choice and one can not blame him for running when his seat is protected.  Mr. Priester is also the victim of a vicious smear campaign.  He doesn't deserve it and the people conducting it should be tarred, beaten, and then run out of town.*

Tony Yarber.  Sitting councilman.  Former principal.  Pastor.  He is a powerful speaker. Has the looks and cuts an imposing figure as a candidate at times.  He has done well in the "debates".   He has a base: Ward 6.  He has had a good staff.  They are veterans, experienced, and some are street-smart.  Jonathan Lee's was young, had a college feel to them.  The same can't be said about Team Tony.  He isn't afraid to take on Jackson Public Schools and says so.  He has been aggressive since the opening of the campaign.  One can tell he must be doing well in the polls as the attacks on Mr. Yarber have become more frequent and ferocious in the lasts 72 hours.  This doesn't happen if you are last in the polls. 

The Bennie/Precious machine is firing the same shells they fired at Lee last year.  Rankin County Republicans. Uncle Tom.  He is in the pay of the Republicans.  Flyers are circulated against him. Precious spent 15 minutes trashing him on the radio and less than two minutes each on the rest of the candidates.   He didn't even mention Regina or Margaret.  Several polls show Mr. Yarber in the lead but polls have been wrong.   It doesn't help that he has not offered many specific solutions in the debate.  However, he is a skilled enough speaker that it may not matter.   Mr. Yarber takes on the race question directly. He simply but firmly says he is asking for their votes and will be offended if they do not vote for him. Would that more candidates would do such a thing. Negative attacks are used for one reason: they work.  It remains whether to be seen if Mr. Yarber can get into the runoff. 

Margaret Barrett-Simon.  32 years on the city council.  It doesn't matter why she is running for Mayor. All that matters is she is.  She does know what a city council meeting looks like, although her attendance record could be better.  Margaret has a nice personality and wasn't afraid to take on Mayor Lumumba at times.  She claims a long list of economic development projects she supported. She has a base in Belhaven and her supporters have been working the white but compact precincts of 32,33, and 34 (Hi, Dorsey).  Whites still make up twenty percent of the voters in Jackson.  The white vote can make a difference in a diverse field such as this one.  It is important to remember she is a Democrat and can count on some black votes.  She won her seat in a majority black district. 

Mrs. Simon also faces several challenges. Her strength is she is white. Her weakness is she is white.  She might make it into the runoff but she will get clobbered in the next round. Her performance in the debates has been nothing short of weak.  Her best chance is to face Harvey Johnson.  There is a large portion of voters who want to see anyone but Harvey.  That might be her best chance, but probably would not be enough, as this city is dominated by all things racial.  The Chokwe people won't forgive her for opposing the Mayor.  The Bennie people will swing behind him if Junior does not make the runoff.  Everyone knows the plan.  Racial politics at its worst. Bennie ads. Klan flyers.  Fear-mongering of the worst kind.  Such will happen if she faces Priester or Lumumba.  Yarber and Harvey won't play that crap, as they will just roll out the machine, work the precincts, and surge to victory.

Regina Quinn. Long time attorney for Jackson State University. She waited to jump out of the gate and took her time putting together a staff. She cites the general themes used by most of the candidates: fight crime, bring jobs to Jackson, rebuild the infrastructure.  She's raised the lowest amount of money and frankly, the short term of the race probably hurt her more than other candidates.  She is a good public speaker. No base, little money, and no strong platform.  She will probably come in sixth or seventh.

This is my analysis of the race.  Tomorrow should be fun.  I will live-blog the election tomorrow night.  Prediction?  Lumumba v. Yarber and Harvey has a good chance of making that runoff as well.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tim Tebow write-in win! Excellent analysis. Yarber and Priester.

Anonymous said...

What is the smear campaign against Priester entail? I have only heard one constant rumor about him, that I won't repeat, and that rumor is everywhere.

Anonymous said...

Donner let the cat out of the bag. Candidates who kiss her prodigious ass get her endorsement. She calls that transparency.

Anonymous said...

I believe Chokwe Antar Lumumba lives in Ward 1 off of Pear Orchard. So sorry anyone is stooping to trash. Jackson needs upright, honest leadership and not sneaks. Also, we do not have leisure to appoint qualified people months from now; we need them soon. We do not have time for anyone to learn the ropes; they must have a feel for the city's business now. "When you are throwing mud you are losing ground." (Read that on a church sign in Star or nearby years ago.)

Anonymous said...

yup, I just got a robo call with some tard babbling about $750,000,000.00 (that's millions for you jsu gradgits) promising to spend it on "the people" if elected.

Anonymous said...

Ladd's gone Lange.

Anonymous said...

Two Lumumba calls so far tonight. Both from Detroit area codes. Interesting.

Anonymous said...

7:37 PM.. the one I got the number was blocked and ID'd as "unknown caller" so I promptly activated my anonymous call reject feature!

Anonymous said...

Octavian called then not more than 2 minutes later so did 'Do You Know Who I am' Horhn.

Anonymous said...

I posted this in the wrong column earlier.
It is enough that candidates deluge our TV, streets and door-to-door knocking, but to intrude by reaching inside our homes with their begging goes too far. I swore years ago that I would not vote for any candidate who called my telephone number and that included a candidate for whom I planned to vote.
Last night at nine o'clock I received a call from one of Antar's people. She started her speech asking for my vote for her guy. I told her I wasn't interested in hearing any of that stuff and that it was 9:00 at NIGHT! I then told her that I planned to vote for someone else.
I hope they don't have my street address. Nothing like payback...

Anonymous said...

8:04,

Matlock ended two and a half hours ago...put your curling irons in, fire up the electric blanket & go to sleep!

Anonymous said...

8:04. Don't answer the knock on your door.

Clintonrebel said...

Harvey will win.

Anonymous said...

How does the predicted rain tomorrow change things? Besides making the voter turn-out even lower... I would think that rain might actually be in Priester's favor.

Anonymous said...

8:40, you obviously enjoy the only attention you likely get when these beggars come calling inside and outside your room.
Don't get too excited- they really don't care about you one way or the other! You likely tell all of them that you support their candidate. Carry on-

Anonymous said...

8:51, I don't, but my dogs raise hell and that is annoying.
When you don't answer the door they leave their literature stuck in the door groove which the wind often blows out into the neighborhood.

Anonymous said...

Who controls the city, Jacksonians or Massah Bennie? Today, you doubters will learn that the city has been annexed to Massah Bennie's plantation and you're just funding it. Hear me now, believe me later!

Anonymous said...

Anybody but Antar.

Anonymous said...


During the last election the battle cry in the black community was "anyone but Harvey Johnson". The battle cry this time is "anyone but Harvey Johnson or Melvin Priester Junior". Everyone knows that Priester Junior had Tillman order to paint over the Lumumba mural.

Such madness from the Bennie Thompson machine....

Anonymous said...

Don't know who ordered what but the mural had no permit.

Anonymous said...

Count me impressed by KF's Punic Wars reference.

Anonymous said...

Why is Urkel in the Priester ad at the top of the page here?

Anonymous said...

Ladd's an adjunct to Antar's campaign now as she works overtime to manufacture a crisis over the mural.

Anonymous said...

Just wanted to say this is an excellent blog site!! Kudos to the owners and writers.



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Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


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Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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