Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Air Force on "path to weakness"

Jack David and Michael Dunn write on the Wall Street Journal editorial page our fleet of fighters, bombers, and tankers is becoming old, smaller, and just plain worn out:


"Serious talk of America's defense budget was largely absent from the final weeks of the presidential campaign, once President Barack Obama likened Gov. Mitt Romney's concerns to an anachronistic focus on "horses and bayonets." But when Mr. Romney lamented that (among other things) the U.S. Air Force has the fewest airplanes it has ever had, he was correct. At its founding in 1947, it had more than 12,300 planes. Today: approximately 5,200.

As the Air Force has been retiring large numbers of older aircraft in recent years, its budgets—drafted by the Pentagon and ultimately enacted by Congress—have prevented it from acquiring enough new aircraft to perform the missions of those retired. From 2008 through 2012, the Air Force retired 700 more aircraft than it bought.

Nevertheless, the Obama administration's budget request for fiscal year 2013 sought to retire an additional 300 airplanes while buying only 54 new ones—a proposal that Congress has so far refused to endorse. The last time the U.S. bought so few aircraft was 1915 (for the Aviation Section of the U.S. Army Signal Corps, an Air Force predecessor). The U.S. even bought more aircraft during the Great Depression.

Then there is the matter of how America's offensive and defensive capabilities have weakened over the past 20 years compared with those of its adversaries and potential adversaries. From that perspective, Mr. Romney's critical statements on defense cutbacks didn't begin to portray how perilous is the state of the Air Force—and how soon its weaknesses might begin endangering missions essential to U.S. national security.

Russian and Chinese aircraft, flown by Indian pilots in exercises, have already bested the U.S. Air Force's fourth-generation aircraft, F-15s and F-16s. Both Russia and China have developed fifth-generation fighters similar to the Air Force's F-22 and F-35.

Moscow and Beijing say they intend to produce those aircraft in numbers far greater than does the U.S., and they have announced plans to sell them to other countries. Russia and China are also creating air defenses that will challenge all but the most sophisticated U.S. aircraft, as are Iran, Venezuela and other countries.

Also troubling are the recent closures of several Air Force production lines. This means that if current estimates of Air Force needs turn out to be too low—for example, if the rising capabilities and intentions of Russia or China become greater threats than anticipated—then the U.S. won't be able to act quickly in response. The production lines and the people who man them will be gone.

Over the past four years, the Obama administration terminated or delayed seven aircraft production lines, including those of the F-22 fighter jet, the C-17 transport airplane, the replacement search-and-rescue helicopter, and a new bomber.

These cuts affect not only Air Force capabilities but also the aerospace industry, which currently accounts for 10 million jobs and almost $50 billion in net exports—the largest of any American industry, according to the Aerospace Industries Association. Closing production lines has meant losing thousands of defense jobs over the past three years. With $500 billion in "sequestration" cuts scheduled to begin on Jan. 2—as part of $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts agreed to in Washington after budget talks failed in 2011—the defense industry will lose another 2.13 million direct and indirect jobs, according to a study from George Mason University.

Building an air force is a long-term process. The reason that the military branch in the U.S. has performed so well is that the American people nourished it with decades of sustained and consistent investment. Yet the Air Force's fleet of planes is older than it has ever been—more than 25 years on average. Some planes, such as the B-52 and KC-135, are more than 50 years old. Americans probably wouldn't let their children or grandchildren take a car that old out on the interstate, or operate it when the temperature is 40 degrees below zero, especially if the vehicle already had hundreds of thousands of miles on it and needed repair.

Ironically, the inattention and repeated cuts that have taken a toll on this branch of the military haven't received the public attention they deserve because the Air Force has been so successful. No U.S. soldier has been killed by enemy air power since 1953. For six decades the Air Force has been able to deny operational air space to adversaries, so U.S. ground forces have operated with little fear of enemy aircraft attacking their positions.

But the U.S. relies on the Air Force to do much more than that—including to hold at risk any actual or potential enemy target, anywhere in the world; to protect the ground forces of friends and allies, such as the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan or the freedom fighters in Libya; to protect the U.S. from a nuclear attack; to reach into Iran if called upon; to provide navigation through its global positioning systems; to gather intelligence remotely from far-flung areas; to defend against cyberattacks; to airlift humanitarian aid anywhere in the world; and otherwise to deter potential adversaries.

What the Air Force can't do is continue on its present path. At least not for much longer.

Mr. David, a senior fellow of the Hudson Institute, was a deputy assistant secretary of defense in the George W. Bush administration. Mr. Dunn, a former president and CEO of the Air Force Association, is a retired Air Force lieutenant general.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Army and Navy ( including the Marine Corps) have air wings as well. The National Guard and Coast Guard have air capability.
There has been more than a little discussion over the years that having competing branches of the military who sometimes don't share resources or cooperate very well may no longer be the best defensive or offensive strategy.
It certainly isn't the most efficient military model.
The future may well be in unmanned aircraft as drones are becoming increasingly sophisticated .
Whenever I see retired military write opinion pieces in the public venue about an arms need, I tend to suspect the influence of a defense contractor with something to sell.

Kingfish said...

True BUT lets look at the facts. The F-15 debuted in the 70's. Falcons and Hornets in the 80's. The B-52s, well, they are pretty damn old. Like it or not, our fleet is old as well as the designs. Its not a problem we can ignore or put off for years to come. We have to deal with it. It also doesn't help they have turned the F-35 into a "flying piano" as everyone tried to have a say in how it was designed. Like it or not, that is the reality of our fleet.

Anonymous said...

It certainly isn't the most efficient military model.

And your specific expertise to make that determination?

Anonymous said...

The F-35 design is apparently good enough for the Chinese to have stolen for their most recent planes, according to a radio report yesterday.

KaptKangaroo said...

Something that emerged out of the election cycle that had me very concerned is the "knowledge" loss over time when it comes to the basics of industry. It is exemplified here too.

As we continue to outsource, or in this case shrink, industries, we leave ourselves vulnerable to a future gap. The gap is represented by a path from start to finish that is interrupted by a loss of "how do you get from here to there." For instance, everyone loves clothing, question is can we make it if we had to? I was reading where we have lost the basic knowledge in the workforce of "how to sew" - not darning socks, but producing goods. Go look at the NYC Garment District sometime - its not there.

It is disturbing to think with NASA closing and the trend towards shrinking our investment in our military regardless of branch that we create a crisis "knowledge gap" of how to get from here to where competing nations are going in the future - more developed than us.

I'm probably stretching the comparison, but it does seem plausible.

Anonymous said...

Read Amity Shales' Forgotten Man. It only gets worse from here.

Anonymous said...

I'm no military expert but I have invested in tech stocks that did avionics and can say that the problem is the service branches themselves. The branches compete among themselves which is a security threat in itself. We should combine the armed forces into a single force and we could build a more powerful military with much better gear & esprit de corps. However if you want to export arms that is a whole other story.

Anonymous said...

You are right. You are no military expert.

Anonymous said...

NASA is not closing, Kaptain. Do some research before posting misinformation.

Hookah said...

We should combine the armed forces into a single force and we could build a more powerful military with much better gear & esprit de corps.

You should come throw out this idea at the Marine Ball this weekend.

KaptKangaroo said...

Sorry, in specific reference to what I am talking about....

Shadow, you should really stop with the trolling. You might get banned.

Anonymous said...

"We should combine the armed forces into a single force and we could build a more powerful military with much better gear & esprit de corps.

You should come throw out this idea at the Marine Ball this weekend. "

Or try proposing it at each of the Academies....

Anonymous said...

It looks like the commanders in theatre had other business on their minds. I cannot say we were successful in the last two wars. The Army lost or destroyed their damn field reports... The principle of civilian control of the military is a foundation of the American system. If you can't speak truth to military power you got no business trying to operate a democracy.

Anonymous said...

The Pentagon is the world's largest employer and its a money pit. Rumsfeld tried to rationalize the place and the brass engineered a departure for him. The place only needs four sides, a basement, and a roof with half of the flag officers and civilians. The Chinese military went through a reform so why can't the USA? Political timidity does not make us strong.

KaptKangaroo said...

November 13, 2012 3:30 PM

Gotta' love bureaucracy? eh? It is a sad day when we have so many vets coming home with lifetime needs and as you put it a reality of "The place only needs four sides, a basement, and a roof with half of the flag officers and civilians."

Anonymous said...

When the Dept. of Defense was created the purpose was to rein in the service chiefs and streamline procurement. The military just got bigger & more politicized with bases and naval stations in every congressional district. The Congress will have a very difficult time keeping the annual deficit below 3% of GDP without reforming this sacred cow.

Anonymous said...

The Marine Corps has been the funding step child and would be delighted.
The military academies could still focus on specific specialities so would be unaffected.
A person doesn't have to be military expert to read what the military experts write. Time in the military, including combat, at the officer level gives one a chance to see how things are currently working. Membership in division associations keeps on up to date. Watching TV and reading the newspaper doesn't.



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